A. Timmermann, and Lohmann, G., 2000:
Noise-Induced Transitions in a simplified model of the thermohaline circulation,
J. Phys. Oceanogr. 30 (8), 1891-1900.
Abstract
A simplified box ocean model for the North Atlantic is used to study the influence
of multiplicative short-term climate variability on the stability and long-term
dynamics of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation. A timescale separation
between fast temperature and slow salinity fluctuations is used to decouple the
dynamical equations resulting in a multiplicative stochastic differential equation
for salinity. As a result the qualitative behaviour and the stability of the
thermohaline circulation become a function of the noise level. This can be
understood in terms of the concept of noise-induced transitions. Furthermore, the
role of non-vanishing noise autocorrelation times on the dynamics of the
thermohaline circulation is investigated. Red Noise temperature forcing generates
new equilibria, which do not have a deterministic counterpart. Our study suggests
that noise-induced transitions might have climate relevance.
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