Frontiers of Science Lecture
Irvine, California, June 8-10, 2000.
 
  Global Climate Models - Past and Future
 
  by Gerrit Lohmann


Climate Variability

  • Climate Variability in the Last Century and Millenium
      (Observed Temperature Change) (Observed Pattern) (Temperature Reconstruction)
     
  • North Atlantic Oscillation
      (The Phases of NAO) (Timeseries of NAO)
     
  • Paleoclimatic Change
      (Abrupt Paleoclimatic Change) (CO2 and Temperature from Ice Cores) (CO2 Increase)
     
  • Future Climate Change
      (Time series) (IPCC) (Temperature Pattern) (Detection)


     
     

    Concepts

  • Circulation models
    (Dynamical Equations) (Grids)
     
  • Earth System Models
      (Bretherton diagram) (Dynamic Vegetation Model)
     
  • Hasselmann's concept of climate variability
    (Stochastic Climate Model)


     
     

    Climate transitions

  • The role of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation
      (Conveyor Belt)
     
  • Modes of Circulation
      (NADW Contributions) Heinrich Events (Sarnthein et al., 2000)

     
  • Two Step Character of Deglaciation: B?lling, Younger Dryas
      (Box Model) (Meltwater and Climate)
     
  • Global Warming and Water Vapor Transport
      (Water Vapor Transport) (CO2-Scenario) (Meridional Mass Transport)
     
  • Related feedback mechanisms
      (Temperature, Ice) (Feedback mechanisms: sea ice) (Hysteresis)
     
  • Parameterizations
    • of bottom boundary layer and subscale oceanic processes.
      (Stabilization by slantwise convection) (Benthic Circulation)
     
     
     

    Methodological aspects

  • Complexity of the models, deficienties, new developments.
    (Reducing Dynamical Equations) (Earth System Models)
     
  • Numerical Development
    on adaptive Grids:     Sperical Geometries; (Conformal Mapping)
     
  • Low order models of the thermohaline circulation

    •   (Box Model) (Phase Space Dynamics)
      Stommel's box model; Noise-Induced Transitions
     
  • Superpositive Feedback, time scale and mode interaction
      (A A* = A* A ?)
     
  • Coupled Climate-Economical-Society Models
      (SIAM Model) (Scenarios)
     
  • Further investigations
      (Open Questions)
     
    Links:


      Froniers Climate lectures
      Martin Stute
      Amy Clement
     
      Research interests of Gerrit
     
      Abstract of the talk
     
     
      IPCC Publications
      The Coming Climate, Sci. Am., Karl et al.
      Literature for Paleoclimatology
      Geological Time Machine (Berkley)
      Atlas for Paleovegetation
      Tectonic Reconstructions
      Some datasets   and  links to other institutes 


    •   Hydrological cycle
      Sea ice effects on the ocean circulation
     
     
      June 2000