Introduction to climate modelling

 
  Gerrit Lohmann, ecolmas-course 2004; Feb 16 - 19, 2004, Bremen

 
 
 
  ECOLMAS course
  -------------------------------------------------------
Motivation.
  Why studying paleoclimate? ,
  Questions and problems
  CO2 rezent , CO2 paleo , Temperature recent , Temperature last 1000 years .
  History .
  A Paleo Perspective on Global Warming .
 
  Slides.
 
 
  Methods
  (practical unit: Seite 1, Seite 2)
 
  Open questions? link
 
 
 
Paleo Data.

Becuase of the fact, that future progress in understanding climate history will depend increasingly on the provision of well-documented data, first a tour through data .

WDC
(http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/paleo/)
The main data center for paleoclimatology.
To learn more about WDC-Paleo click here.
_

WDC-MARE / PANGAEA
(http://www.pangaea.de/)
Network for Geological and Environmental Data.
_

MEDIAS
(http://medias.obs-mip.fr/)
Governmental non Profit Organization for research development on global change particularly in Mediterranean Basin and Subtropical Africa.
Data center, including the european, african and cenozoic pollen databases.
_

WDC
(http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/mgg/aboutmgg/wdcmgg.html)
World Data Center for Marine Geology & Geophysics, Boulder

_

APG Atlas
(http://instaar.colorado.edu/QGISL/ak_paleoglacier_atlas)
The APG Atlas is a GIS-based summary of Pleistocene glaciation across Alaska.
Global land environments since the last interglacial.
http://members.cox.net/quaternary/
Maps and data about global landcover change.

DPDC
http://diatom.acnatsci.org/dpdc/
The DPDC is a web-accessible database of diatom and associated ecological and paleolimnological data relevant to study of global change.

_


 
 
 
 
The ocean
  Oceanic views from satellites, SST, El Nino, etc. link
  Coral Reef Bleaching
 
 
 
 
Glacial-Interglacial climate cycles
  link
 
  Non-linear system link
  Ice ages link
  Milankovitch Theory link
 
  Energy balance model (practical: Seite 1, Seite 2)
  Energy balance link, then go to slides 9 and 10
  Ice House vs. hot house world link
  Snowball Earth link
  PAGES slides link
  -------------------------------------------------------
 
 
Time scales
  Geological Time machine link
  Platetectonic, Straits link
  Klimaspektrum picture Stochastic Climate Model
  link, then go to slide 2
 
 
 
Informations
  Proxies link link
  Climate archives
  Ice cores link
  Sediments link
  Groundwater link
  Corals link ,
  Pollen,
  Tree rings link ,
  historical Evidences
  link
  link
  link
 
 
 
 
-------------------------------------------------------
 
 
Analyses methods
  Time series analysis, e.g. Wavelet link , SSA link
  Detection of pattern link ,
  Cluster and pattern analysis r
  Example Corals link
  Folien.
 
 
 
 
-------------------------------------------------------
 
 
Climate modes
  Climate Dynamics;
  THC, ENSO, NAO, etc. link, then go to Bildergalerie
  ENSO
  1500 years cycle link
  Solar variability
  Teleconnections
 
 
 
 
  • Climate Variability in the Last Century and Millenium
      Folien.
     
  • North Atlantic Oscillation
      Folien.
     
  • Paleoclimatic Change
      Folien.
     
  • Future Climate Change
      Folien.


     
     
     
    -------------------------------------------------------
     
     
    Climate Modelling
      Climate Components
      (Climate system)
      Earth system modelling
      Slides.
      Concepts
      Slides
      Low-order Models link
      Carbon Cycle link
     
     
     
     
    Concepts

  • Circulation models
  • Earth System Models
  • Hasselmann's concept of climate variability
  • DaisyBall, GAIA: The concept of self-regulating climate variability
    go to Daisy.

    (Donald)
      Slides.
     
     
     
     

    Methodological aspects

  • Complexity of the models, deficienties, new developments.
  • Models: Earth System Models, conceptual models etc.
  • Low order models of the thermohaline circulation

    •  
      Stommel's box model; Noise-Induced Transitions
      Slides.
     
     
    -------------------------------------------------------
     
     

    Abrupte Klima?berg?nge

  • The role of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation
      (Conveyor Belt)
     
  • Modes of Circulation
     
  • Two Step Character of Deglaciation: B?lling, Younger Dryas
     
  • Global Warming and Water Vapor Transport
     
  • Related feedback mechanisms
     
  • Parameterizations
    • of bottom boundary layer and subscale oceanic processes.
      (Stabilization by slantwise convection) The overflow process and deep water formation north of the Greenland-Scotland Ridge affect strongly the response of the ocean's circulation to subpolar atmospheric variability. This is in particular important for the interpretation of paleoclimatic records.
     
      Folien.
     
     
    -------------------------------------------------------
     
    Erdgeschichte und Klima
      Extreme Ereignisse
      Climate, Culture, and Catastrophe in the Ancient World link
      link
      Climate and the Classic Maya Civilization
      ?berblick ?ber das Holoz?n: Mittelalterliche Warmzeit, Kleine Eiszeit, Zyklen (60-70, 88-94, 112-126 Jahre), Globale Erw?rmung, etc.
      Global vs. solar warming?
      Causes of Climate Change Over the Past 1000 Years
     
     
     
     
     
  • Further investigations
      (Open Questions)
     
    Links:


      IPCC Publications
      The Coming Climate, Sci. Am., Karl et al.
      CLIVAR, GLOBAL MODELLING AND PREDICTION
     
     
      Literature for Paleoclimatology
      Geological Time Machine (Berkley)
      Atlas for Paleovegetation
      Tectonic Reconstructions
      Some datasets   and  links to other institutes 


    •   Hydrological cycle
      Sea ice effects on the ocean circulation
     
    Praktische Einheiten
      Praktische Einheiten mit webinterface: Statistik
     
      Praktische Einheiten mit webinterface: Chaos
      Lorenz Model 1 Lorenz Model 2 Lorenz Model 3 Lorenz Model 4
     
      Praktische Einheiten mit webinterface: Energiebilanzmodell
      Albedo Feedbacks Daisy Daisy 2
     
      Praktische Einheiten mit webinterface: Java Climate Model (Bern)
     
      Praktische Einheiten mit webinterface: Composite maps
     
      Praktische Einheiten mit KNMI webinterface
      US Climate Division Dataset Plots
      Time Series Data Library
      Teleconnections
      Correlation , Mittelwert+Varianz , Moment , T-test , F-test , Noise
      Matrialgesetzte
      References
      LV www Sites
      Earth's Climate LV: Earth's Climate Past and Future , by William F. Ruddiman
      LV slides
      LV Meteorology Slides W2010
      Learn: Cycles of the Earth and Atmosphere
     
      Learn: Cycles of the Earth and Atmosphere
     
     
     
    -------------------------------------------------------
     
      Online Lectures
      Online Lecture paleoceanography
      Online Lecture time info
      EOFs
     
     
  • Background reading
      Background reading: Klimamodellierung by Thomas Stocker
      Background reading: Climate modelling by McGuffie & Henderson
      Background reading: Role of GCMs by Ghil & Robertson